Japan's Tsunami & Nuclear Meltdown

On April 12 the Fukushima nuclear plant was retroactively assigned a level indicating the most serious accident – the maximum Level 7 security. The level is the same one assigned Chernobyl, the worst nuclear disaster to date. It raises the specter that in time Fukushima could come to replace unenviable title presently held by Chernobyl.

The following account predates the introductory paragraph and documents how the disaster has unfolded over time. From the start, it documents the authorities overly conservative estimates of the dangers posed by the accident and gives an interesting perspective on the disaster as it has unfolded.

Less than 24 hours after Japan's November 11th's Sendai earthquake and tsunami, the largest earthquake in Japan's history was responsible for, Naoto Kan, the Prime Minister declaring Japan's first-ever "nuclear emergency," although he did try to reassure the public that it was nothing to be alarmed about.

However, it became increasingly clear that things weren't as safe as suggested as problems at the Fukushima One reactor became more apparent; predictably, the inevitable headline appeared:

Danger to US West Coast if Japan Nuclear Meltdown

The headline seems less like fiction as the story continues to develop. Certainly the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will reopen the debate on the safety of nuclear power stations much in the same way the BP disaster in the Gulf resulted in changes to our perception about the safety of deep sea drilling. Also, it seems that the Japanese government might well be guilty of some obfuscation, at the very least.

Anyone interested enough in arcane movies to have seen The China Syndrome (1979) or old enough to remember the partial core meltdown at Three Mile Island, eerily occurring three months after the film's release, will recognize a certain amount of dread at the thought of the effects of a meltdown of a core in a nuclear power plant in Japan.

The accident at Three Mile Island seemed to seal the fate of nuclear power plants up until recently since none were built in the US after the incident. And the desire to become greener that is helping hail in a new desire for nuclear power at home was not the prime reason why the oil-less Japan has built so many power stations.

The Chernobyl disaster in 1986 occurred in the Ukraine (then part of the USSR) and the fallout made its effects known far beyond the country's borders, and it was calculated that millions in surrounding countries could have been affected.

During the current crisis, the US has helped by delivering generators and emergency coolant to nuclear authorities in Japan after they said that there was a high chance that nuclear rods at Tokyo Electric Power's Daiichi plant may be melting or have melted, Jiji news agency reported on Saturday.

This rapid delivery of help and supplies to the Japanese nuclear power plants indicate the grave seriousness the US attaches to the disaster. An inspection of the YouTube video of the March 12 explosion of the nuclear reactor should give us pause to accept the official explanation, while giving obvious comfort to those who believe the relative benign official explanations. One observer, although not an expert, tells us with good reason "to check out the shock wave and the baby mushroom cloud coming out the top of the containment building!"

Scientists are claiming that one power plant at Fukushima is in danger of a melt-down although they claim that no one outside of a ten-kilometer radius will be affected - and, it should be noted, the radius defining the supposed safe zone has been increased from three kilometers! Super-heated gases containing radiation have already been exhausted in an attempt to keep the core cooler. Later reports on the cited March 12 video have added greatly to the disquiet. Some have reported radiation readings many times normal!

No country's government has distinguished itself in recent years by treating its people with honesty, and there is no reason to believe that the people of Japan, the US or the world are being told the truth about what is presently happening in Japan's nuclear power stations.

All countries seem to be as secretive about nuclear accidents as they are about their weapons and the public would be well advised to greet announcements about what's going on in the power stations with some skepticism!

Recent history has taught us that democratic governments have a poor record of telling their own people the truth and often the media don't investigate what we're told; citizens in democracies should not blindly accept what we're told by our governments or our media – we've been lied to too often.

As news unfolds, it will become clearer whether the US west coast will be affected by airborne radiation particles. The particles are airborne and because of the jet stream the US would be the country most effected other than Japan. Honest communications are essential, and we must hope that the authorities have been truthful to date.

Regardless, whether radiation particles reach the shores of the US, there are certain to be questions raised including evaluating the role that nuclear plants should play in this country's future energy plans. At least safety concerns need to be reevaluated in light of any lessons that can be learned from Japan's recent tragedy and its impact on its nuclear power plants. Although they will be around for a lot longer, at the very least there should be a new debate on improving the safety for nuclear power plants in the US and elsewhere. This is one piece of fallout that is as sensible as it is certain.

UPDATES

Saturday, March 12, 2011 — approx. 6:00 E.S.T.

CNN was announcing a meltdown was taking place around 6:00 E.S.T., prior to having the Japanese Ambassador denying that one was happening. On the contrary, the Ambassador suggested, the radioactivity had fallen in the surrounding area. A little later CNN took to reporting announcements around the meltdown as "conflicting reports."

Other reports suggest that there is danger of other reactors not being properly cooled because of failures in their cooling systems. The confusion in reporting "the facts" this long after the initial earthquake and tsunami is disturbing. The very uncertainty does not auger well, and Japan's official line to understate the problems also seems counterproductive to understanding the real state of affairs.

The power station was originally built by General Electric some 40 years ago - about the usual time-span of nuclear power stations built at that time last. It's age may help explain why three of the six generators were being serviced at the time of the tsunami. It's present operators have a somewhat checkered career apparently having been in trouble on several occasions for falsifying documents. And some have expressed surprise that the power station's design didn't incorporate a recognition that it should withstand Friday's tsunami.

Strong aftershocks, all capable of inflicting further terrible wounds, continue to be reported. Along with most aftershocks, come the destructive powers of the attendant tsunamis. There are more sorrows, injuries, deaths and damage to property and, potentially, power stations with each incident. Given the enormity of the problems associated with the nuclear generators, it's difficult to grasp the enormity of all the human and material damage associated with the earthquake, tsunami and continuing aftershocks and potentially more tsunamis.

Sunday, March 13, 2011 – approx 2:00 E.S.T

As well as the Fukushima's No. 1 reactor being reported to either have gone through a partial or total meltdown, the rather garbled news suggested that between one and three reactors were either in a state of partial or full nuclear meltdown. Certainly the government will come under criticism for the muddled, mixed and perhaps inaccurate way it has communicated what's been unfolding. The authorities have relocated over 200,000 about 20 kilometers away from the reactors, and they admit to levels of radiation that passed the limits legally permitted around the reactors.

All three of these reactors appear to have lost all the usual means of cooling and the technicians resorted to using sea water as a coolant that all experts admit to being something of a last ditch measure to avoid total disaster.

And what would total disaster mean? Again, there's surprisingly little information available at the time of writing. However, some suggest that even a worst scenario would result in less problems and contamination than Chernobyl because of the superior design built into the plant. It will take about 36 hours for any airborne particles to reach the West Coast. At this point the popular media seem to be downplaying the risks. As usual, there are a number of experts who are more pessimistic in their prognosis of the impact on both the US and the world should meltdowns occur at the problematic power station. 

Call for US to put brakes on US nuclear power plans

As predicted, it didn't take long for the first call for caution in the US to be sounded by a politician. At just after 3:00 E.S.T., on March 13, CNN announced that Joe Lieberman said of the future of nuclear power, “I think we've got to kind of quietly and quickly put the brakes on until we can absorb what has happened in Japan . . .” Other political leaders can be expected to follow Lieberman's more cautious approach.

No Harmful Effects!

Shortly before 5:00 E.S.T., March 13, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission issued the following statement: “Given the thousands of miles between the two countries, Hawaii, Alaska, the U.S. Territories and the U.S. West Coast are not expected to experience any harmful levels of radioactivity.” Even with this reassurance, it is certain that others will take Lieberman's lead. On March 14, the USS Ronald Reagan, admittedly just off-shore Japan, had to reposition to make sure that it would be unaffected by radioactive material that, luckily, was blowing seaward but, unfortunately, had been found on both some helicopters and their pilots who had flown through "mists" of exhausted material from the reactors.

Fukushima's Reactor Core not Designed to withstand Tsunamis or Earthquakes!

On March 14, BBC reported that "Japanese engineer Masashi Goto, who helped design the containment vessel for Fukushima's reactor core, says the design was not enough to withstand earthquakes or tsunamis and the plant's builders, Toshiba, knew this." This recent revelation does not add confidence to any who suspects that authorities tend not to be honest during such incidents. Certainly situating generators so that they would be easily swamped in the event of a tsunami doesn't suggest a great deal of forethought. Whatever the truth, it seems that the plant was not designed to withstand the strength and height of the tsunami that hit it.

March 14 – Fukushima now is regarded as the second most serious nuclear accident of all time

The Kyodo News Agency quoted Tokyo Power Comapany as saying that yesterday's explosion was a result of radiation that probably leaked after the container vessel was damaged at Fukushima's reactor 2. Again, it seems that even now there is a tendency to underestimate the seriousness of the situation. It is now being regarded as the second most serious nuclear accident of all time. Chernobyl is still regarded as the worst and Three Mile Island is now in third place.

It is going to become increasingly hard to reassure a Japanese population that is already shell-shocked. Late Monday E.S.T. (Tuesday morning in Japan) the safety perimeter has been increased to 30 km from the previous 20, indicating the obviously more serious situation. 

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale - Accident could be classed as 5 or 6 on a 1-7 scale!

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have a guide that, it says, “explains the significance of events from a range of activities, including industrial and medical use of radiation sources, operations at nuclear facilities and transport of radioactive material.” It's called The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale. It resembles the Richter scale that we use to measure earthquakes or Fahrenheit or Celsius scales to measure temperature. It is in the form of a pdf file and is well worth consulting. It will be useful in interpreting the seriousness of the accident. For instance, on March 14, BBC reported: “The French ASN nuclear safety authority says the incident at the Fukushima plant could be classed as level 5 or 6 on the international scale of 1 to 7. It is currently rated at level 4.” The most serious 7 is a “Major Accident” and 6 a “Serious Accident.”

March 14 – Accident Upgraded to Level 6

Sympatico News reported that France's Nuclear Safety Authority upgraded the accident to Level 6. They note: "Andre-Claude Lacoste told reporters on Tuesday that the situation in Japan is less severe than the core explosion at Chernobyl, but worse than the 1979 partial core meltdown at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania."

Later in the day, I heard the announcement around 7:30 E.S.T that The International Atomic Energy Agency had also upgraded the accident to Level 6.

March 15 & 16 – Situation graver as there are even more causes for concern.

The inability to add water to Unit 2 on March 15 put the unit in the most severe condition – an explosion caused damage to the containment system. (Units 1, 2 and 3 were active prior to the tsunami.)

A fire that broke out at Unit 4 involving spent rods from the reactor where they were meant to be kept in water-filled spent fuel ponds. It is the second fire and concerns are continuing to rise rather than abate. There may well be three melt-downs underway, Unit 2 is of particular concern. Apparently the last 50 fighting the fires have been withdrawn causing some consternation since, once again, there have been few details released.

Units 4, 5, and 6 were all under maintenance at the time but are all problematic with the fuel ponds at Unit 4 proving most worrisome. They also reported that the remaining firemen and workers had pulled back from fighting the fire at just after 11:00 E.S.T. (March16 in Japan.) However, they were back at work after an hour or so; they had been withdrawn temporally because of fluctuating radiation. These men all face life-threatening doses of radiation and are heroes in every sense of the word.

Many individuals are now carrying meters to monitor radioactivity as concerns among citizens rise. Readings as high as 400 mSv/h were observed during March 15, reported BBC.

Many journalists flew in to Japan thinking that they would be reporting on the effects of the tsunami and earthquake. However, the main story has become the nuclear disaster. The growing concern on the faces of the reporters are as revealing as their words. Some foreign companies have withdrawn their employees from Japan; and some airlines are not flying into Tokyo any more. Many Japanese are now beginning to doubt the veracity of some of the reports they are receiving about their safety, and this lack of confidence will become an increasing problem.

Even many in Tokyo are growing increasingly nervous and many are now trying to leave the city. There is no sense of panic though as the Japanese remain both calm and stoical in the manner that has become something of a wonder for the rest of the world.

And something as simple as the direction of the wind could make a great difference regarding the disbursement or radioactivity; to date the wind has been blowing radioactivity off-shore – one of the few pieces of luck for an island that has had precious little in the last few days.

March 17, 2011

Quite unintentionally, what started out as a brief article has morphed into an entirely different creature. An article that had merely meant to suggest that the public should be weary of news we received about the nuclear accident in Japan has become a work in progress; as I watch and listen to many news sources, it seems impossible not to continue to comment on the news, preach continued skepticism about any news involving large sums of money, politicians and governments and take an occasional stab at the truth.

It's presently 1:00 E.S.T. on March 17, I haven't added to the article for almost 24 hours, and I am glad not to have since it would have needed several revisions to keep pace with what appears to be a lot of confusion around reporting the facts. The confusion itself is not reassuring and adds to the uncertainty and growing fear that surrounds the disaster at Fukushima's six units.

Certainly things have grown more serious and the US experts have openly disagreed with the Japanese about the area of safety.

There is even a tremendous divergence of views about what the worst scenario would mean should all attempts to bring the disaster under control fail. Today's New York Times took a decidedly alarmist position in today's headline reflecting what will be a country-wide questioning as to just how safe the closest nuclear power station is – many New Yorkers have felt uneasy enough about the proximity of Indian Point Nuclear Power Station without the crisis in Japan to remind them of the reasons.

The fact that potassium iodide tablets have sold out on the West Coast has been cited by many as the public not being sensible or well-informed – but that might not be the whole story. As suggested at the beginning of the article, part of the story is "How much of the truth are we hearing?" Both governments and large corporations are often not regarded as reliable sources. Also the popular media have not always been as accurate as we might expect or hope. In emergencies it is crucial that people can look to a source for the truth – certainly they expect to hear it from their governments. When a government loses or has lost the people's trust, the crisis becomes a whole lot worse. Perhaps Americans can be excused if they're a little suspicious when they're told to believe the experts, the media or the government. Knowing where to find the truth is a time-consuming and, sometimes, I am discovering, an almost impossible task. I just assume we will know more of it sometime in the future than we do now!

In Japan it appears that the government have relied too much on the Tokyo Electric Power Company much in the same way the American one looked to BP for their information in the early days of the crisis in the Gulf. The Los Angeles Times suggested that the Japanese government had lost or were fast losing the people's trust reporting: "The government and Tokyo Electric Power have neglected to update residents with accurate information," Kazunobu Sakurai, the mayor of Minamisoma, told the public broadcaster NHK. "We need the government to keep us informed, to send emergency supplies and to help move residents who are inside the evacuation zone."

The international response has become decidedly cautious with many companies and countries either offering or suggesting their nationals or employees leave Tokyo and, in some instances, Japan. Hearing contradictory information from other governments is hardly reassuring for the Japanese people.

Things have not improved at Fukushima No. 1 (Daiichi) plant in the last 24 hours; cooling down the reactors and the cooling pool or pools seem to remain the main focus and problem. Helicopter drops seemed a last ditch effort while efforts are made to restore power to some of the existing systems and bring more water to the site via water cannons and other apparatus.

The truth is still very murky – my sense is that in the next 24 to 48 hours, we will have a much clearer sense of whether the problems will be brought under control or what a worst case scenario will actually mean. Unless Jim Berkland is right, I suggest readers take their cue from the phrase that became associated with The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy – Don't Panic! Not yet, anyway!

March 18

Again, there was another day of confusing reports. The emphasis remains on trying to keep the reactors cool. As well as helicopters, water cannons were bought to the site. Radioactivity falls and rises sometimes forcing the workers back. The main focus for Tokyo Electric Power Company appears to be in running cables to restore power to two of the reactors. They are hoping to have the cooling systems activated by Saturday. Images of the power station does leave us with some questions regarding the state of the infrastructure within the reactors, though.

The price of not appearing to have been fully transparent regarding the truth of the problems associated with the power plant is being paid by citizens who now have the additional problem of worrying whether their government is telling them the truth. Certainly the continuing exodus of foreigners must be somewhat disconcerting to many Japanese.

March 19 – Corner finally turned?

By Saturday's end, the news from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station was positive on all fronts except, perhaps, one.

A large number of volunteer fire fighters from Tokyo sprayed down the reactors and also made sure water remained in the spent fuel ponds. Their strategy appeared to be successful since the temperatures were dropping satisfactory in all reactors.

TEPCO successfully connected AC cables to the Unit 1 and 2 reactor buildings with the hope that powered systems could be soon restored to these buildings.

There were holes punched in the containment buildings of Units 5 and 6 so that hydrogen would vent avoiding possible explosions. The heat removal systems for these units are working after a fashion and temperatures are both steady and tolerable.

At the end of the day, there was a sense that some sort of control had been established over all the units, and the situation should improve. The use of seawater to cool the reactors seems to have been a successful and questions regarding the length of time taken to implement it are bound to follow.

Radioactivity Still a Worry

Certainly the firemen and others who have battled the fires and other problems at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station have been exposed to a great deal of radioactivity. There were worries that some food was not safe, particularly milk and vegetables grown close to the plant. On March 19 OGDONS NEWS reported: "The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare informed the Agency that radiation levels exceeding legal limits had been detected in milk produced in the Fukushima area and in certain vegetables in Ibaraki. The Ministry has requested an investigation into the possible stop of sales of food products from the Fukushima Prefecture."

If the problems at the power station are coming under control, the emphasis will shift to worries associated with the radioactivity as well as examining the steps that must be taken to make sure other nuclear power stations are more secure.

March 20

Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station

The Tokyo Power Company announced that Units 5 and 6, the least troublesome of the reactors, were now safe after their fuel storage pools had been brought under control and cooled down. There are still four reactors overheating.

Radioactivity

Earlier on Sunday March 20, the nuclear authorities in Japan had announced that radioactive gas had stopped being vented. Part of the problem associated with the traces of radiation that has been found in food and water sources near the nuclear plant probably is associated with the venting that has taken place.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that "Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that the evacuation of the population from the 20-kilometre zone around Fukushima Daiichi has been successfully completed. Japanese authorities have also advised people living within 30 kilometres of the plant to remain inside."

Tue 22 March, IAEA Briefs Member States on Latest Developments in Japan

Graham Andrew, Special Adviser to the IAEA Director General on Scientific and Technical Affairs, briefed the Agency's Member States on the nuclear emergency in Japan following last week's devastating earthquake.

`March 23

Grey smoke interrupted work on unit 3 on the 21^st, on the 22^nd smoke was less visible but had started belching black and gray smoke on the 23^rd and there might be evidence of a small fire at the base of the smoke plumes. Work had had to be stopped on a number of occasions because of concerns around this reactor. White smoke, probably steam, was observed coming from unit 2 on a number of occasions during the last few days but has not been regarded as alarming a signal as the smoke from unit 3. At the other four units cooling was either satisfactory or progressing satisfactorily. There seems to be a sense of progress of the two steps forward one step back kind with both units 2 and 3 although better progress is being made with the others. On occasion, the public is reminded that there is still the potential of further dangers.

Tokyo's drinking water had twice the legal limit of radiation, and on the 23^rd residents were advised that the water shouldn't be used to reconstitute baby formula. There has been something of an exodus from Tokyo although the majority of native Japanese remain. However, they do seem to be becoming increasingly concerned about the radiation. Other countries, particularly those close to Japan, are showing a growing concern and many have been checking imports from Japan for radiation. Since the country does not export a great deal of the foods that have shown elevated radiation levels, there has been concern rather than alarm up until this point.

March 25 – Specter of Core Damage, Again

Against the backdrop of an increasing number of countries banning food grown from the area around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant; the announcement that worrying, illegal levels of radioactivity had been found in the sea near the plant; the news that at least one major shipping line's ships will not be entering Tokyo bay; and the yo-yoing results from Tokyo's water supply came news that was potentially even worse Friday morning.

The reactor at Unit 3 may have had damage done to the core on March 14 when the outer containment building was blown apart by a hydrogen explosion. Work has been stopped at Units 1 to 3 so that radiation levels can be checked. There is a disturbing pattern of continuing set-backs each time things seem to be improving; and, again, it seems to be a threat that things could become worse at the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

International scientists and experts seem to be growing more and more impatient and frustrated with the incomplete and patchy information that has been provided by Tepco. There is a sense that the crisis is growing and some scientists suggest that the amount of radioactivity that has been released has already reached the level of half the amount of the 1968 Chernobyl accident.

March 31

Partial Meltdowns and attendant problems continue to dog the attempts of the workers at the Fukushima plant. The sea water that's been used to cool the generators has become a problem in itself. The leak or leaks have allowed radiation to escape and mix with the water making it dangerous enough that the workers periodically have to cease work. Another outcome of continuing to douse the rods is that the radiation in the sea surrounding the plant has been increasing dramatically. On land, some have called for the exclusion area to be increased to 80 km, and foodstuffs grown in prefectures close to the plant show enough radiation to be considered unsafe.

Both the government and Tepco have now admitted that they should have responded faster to the nuclear threat. However, the risk or potential risks to both the Japanese and those in other countries are said to be minimal. People in Tokyo are reassured that despite a slight rise in radiation there are no increased risks to their health. As particles of radiation that began their life at the Fukushima plant are found in the US and elsewhere, assurances are being made that even a complete meltdown at one or more than one generator would not pose the risks that followed the accident at Chernobyl.

However, the lack of concrete information regarding the actual damage to each of the generators and their cooling pools does not allow me to be too sanguine about the ramifications of a complete meltdown or meltdowns. Also, the notion that the sea is large enough to deal with any problems from the contaminated sea water from the plant seems a little too cavalier.

As March draws to its close, concern seems to have heightened rather than diminished as it becomes increasingly clear that the damage to the plant is not thoroughly understood. Certainly the word that best describes Tepco's handling of the problems at Fukushima as well as its dealings with the public is "disaster". It's not a welcome word when used in conjunction with "nuclear power" – something that's meant to be a safe source of energy. The sad events at Fukushima lead credence to the notion that safe nuclear energy is an oxymoron.

April 10, 2011

TEPCO has pumped thousands of gallons of water with “relatively” low radiation into the ocean to make space for water that is many more times higher in radiation. Reportedly the pumping will be ending shortly as China, among others, express concern. Large amounts of water are in continuing use to try and cool the reactors. My sense is that there will be another point in the future when there is more water than room. Perhaps stupidly, I wonder: "What will happen to all of the new water with the much higher concentration of radiation when there is no longer room to store it?"

The crisis is far from over. And engineers acknowledge that it could take many years to clean up the toxic mess that will be left behind after all of the damaged reactors are brought under control. And it does seem to be taking a very long time to make the reactors manageable. The full impact on Japan will not be properly known until much, much later since the full effects of radiation are sometimes not seen until years after an event. In the meantime, many countries have enacted restrictions to guard against importing any food from Japan that may have been exposed to radiation.

The Japanese continue to show growing unease and concern regarding how the nuclear crisis is being handled. TEPCO, because of its large advertising budget and influence, has been able to stifle much criticism and any hard nosed reporting. Seemingly reporters have been fired and stories killed that might have thrown the company into even more unfavorable light than it presently enjoys.

Recently there was a small protest rally held outside TEPCO's offices; in most countries, a rally of its size would have drawn no attention. However, in Japan such public displays are very rare and, thus, are significant. As we have seen, there are reasons why there may well be a deep distrust of TEPCO. It is not the first time nor will it be the last that truth finds itself an early casualty of a large company when it finds itself in trouble. Rumors that the government will have to nationalize the company are always denied; however, it is easy to envision scenarios where the Japanese government will not be left an option.

April 12, 2011

Today's worrying announcement that the Fukushima Daiichi power plant had retroactively been deemed a Level 7 incident led to a new introductory paragraph being added to this ongoing account. The article now serves as a document that gives one person's perspective and analysis on the nuclear accident as it has unfolded.